Could the GOP lose both House and Senate?

It’s possible.

Just over 6 months away from the US mid-term elections and things are not looking good for Donald Trump.

In the latest special election, the Republican candidate won by just 5% in an area of Arizona that is heavily Republican. Republicans won that same area by 21% in the last election in 2016. The winner had no scandals to hurt her chances.

In 2018 Tennessee Senate race to replace outgoing Republican Sen. Bob Corker, where Trump won by 61% in 2016, current polls have Democrat candidate, Phil Bredesen, who was re-elected in 2006 with 69% of the vote, leading the Republican challenger Marsha Blackburn anywhere from a 3% to a 10% lead.

Even now, Trump is starting to help Blackburn with tweeting with a vote 6+ months away.

In 9 special elections in 2017 and 2018 [8 in the House and 1 in the Senate], the Democrats gained points in every election. While they still lost in some that were heaving Republican strongholds, they made quite a bit of ground averaging about 17 points increase.

Remember that the democrats won seats in Arizona and Pennsylvania – both previously Republican strongholds. Both also had controversial candidates – remember Roy Moore?

The Republicans thought they could have a cushy lead as most of those up for re-election in the senate are Democrats with some in states won by Trump in 2016. But with the major loses in seats and Republican voters, the GOP could be heading to a big defeat in November.

Even now, in the House, the GOP have a sizable lead but with so many toss up races leaning towards the Democrats – let alone quite a few Republican leaning seats – the House could switch over to Democrats.

If the Democrats take over the House, it will be difficult for Trump to pass anything. If they take both, Trump will be a lame duck President.

This could further cause problems for Trump as it could increase chances of impeachment.

 

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About ebraiter
computer guy

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