Could Donald Trump split the Republican vote?
July 10, 2015 Leave a comment
As you probably heard, the Republicans in the United States are getting a bit nervous after Presidential candidate Donald Trump made some undiplomatic comments about immigration issues.
These comments cost him his job as host of NBC’s Apprentice show as well his Miss America and Miss Universe pageants have been dropped by a major Latin America network Univision.
There has also been other consequences with his immigration comments, offending primarily the Latino population in the United States and others.
But in a recent interview, Trump still believes he can win the Latino vote in an election. [Historically, Latinos and other minorities in the United States voted more often for the Democrats. The last vote in 2012 marked one of the lowest percentage of Latinos voting for the Republicans ever.]
Just this week, Trump had a one our phone call with the Republican Party’s management and was told to drop some of the harsher remarks against immigration.
Right now, Trump’s popularity in early polls have actually gone up since his remarks. But it is still early and there are just too many candidates to choose from.
The question will be how long in the primaries will he survives through. Will he be arrogant enough to stick it out until the end. Some suggest he is like a novelty item – nice to start off with but when the primaries begin, his popularity will drop as the state primaries get more serious.
This could infuriate him which could make him stay in the race longer than expected as nobody expects him to win the nomination.
I believe that if he leaves the race early, there won’t be any repercussions. However, the longer he stays in the race, it increases the chances of him running as an independent if he doesn’t get the nomination.
This may cause mostly Republicans to vote for him instead of actual Republican candidates. In some races [such as the mid-west] it may mean little, but in swing states as well as some specific areas of non-swing states, it could cause the Republican candidate to lose when they could of won without Trump in the running.
One has to wonder if voting for Trump is a good thing. Aside from being divorced multiple times he has also been bankrupt. A while back he complained that on purposely the flight path in Miami was changed so that the path would be right over one of his properties there.
Finally, he wanted to sue the Latin America network Univision for $500 million because of breach of contract. While he would never get $500 million, there is a good chance he would win because there was no morality [or similar] clause in the contract.