A provincial election in Quebec after Labour Day?

According to one report today [as well as rumours floating around for a while], Quebec Premier Jean Charest will announce an election soon that will begin on or just after August first for an election just after Labour Day.

Some say he is doing this because it is expected that the economy may falter in the fall and he doesn’t want to “live” through it.

Others are saying this would also be like a mini-referendum on how he is handling the student protesters. Last polls said that the majority of Quebecers are siding with the government – even with the way Bill 78 was blundered.

In any case, I am already predicting a minority government. The question is who will be the premier.

The Liberals will definitely lose votes and seats. Many are unhappy with Charest and his government. Only the “hard” federalists [which includes most Anglophones] will get his support. On the other hand, some Anglophones may vote for someone other than the Liberals after the Office de la Lange Française recently did more investigating [usually another sign of an election as Charest is sacrificing Anglophone votes to get more soft separatists on his side]. Small federalist-leaning parties would get those votes but no game changing.

Then there is the CAQ under Francois Legault. A young party with no MNAs at this time. Two by-elections and none won by the party. His party will be the one to cause the minority government as he will attract the soft separatists, the soft federalists and the few Anglophones who don’t want to vote for the Liberals as a protest against the lack of support the Liberals have given the Anglophone community. Legault seems to be the most popular of the three main party leaders.

Finally we have Pauline Marois’ Parti Quebecois. She isn’t a popular leader either. She will continue to attract the separatists but maybe not the “hard” separatists who probably will end up with one of the fringe parties. She will lose a chunk of the soft separatists to the CAQ. Even within her own party, she has leadership problems.

But the big question is why Charest would announce an election now with at least 16 months left in his mandate. Doesn’t he know that he will lose his majority? He is already at a near thin majority and surely he will lose that with an election.

At least with another year, he can hopefully clear up the student protesters issue and maybe the economy will improve.

If not, he could be in his last 60 days as Premier of Quebec and likely may never be premiere again.

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About ebraiter
computer guy

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