The phoniness of research companies

From a guy who has a degree in Mathematics, I’ve never trusted any reports, predictions or results from these so-called “research” companies.
To give you an example, we’ll take the upcoming iPhone 5 and the iPad 3 – which the latter may not even be called that.
Last year, these geniuses had already started to speculate when the iPhone 5 would come out [which in turn was wrong because it was the 4S]. Some said late spring, others in the early summer [usually a dumb time to release electronics] and then early fall in time for the school year. In fact the 4S was a bit later than that.
Recently, they are trying to figure out when the iPad 3 [if it won’t be called something like the iPad 2S] would be out. Some predicted by the US Thanksgiving [a bit too close to the iPhone release], to a few weeks before Christmas [that passed], to in a week or two [looks like another miss] with now a reported early spring [we’ll see]. But if another reputable report is more right, a spring release could be logical as they are reporting that production has started – if the report is true.
What adds more to the goofiness of these so-called “analysts” is that they can’t even get their sales figures right [at least until Apple releases the actual figures]. One says that 11.7 million iPad 2s were sold in the last quarter of 2011 [which is a bit logical] and another one claims a whopping 19.47 million – which is highly unlikely especially since while the Christmas season would boost sales, some know that the upcoming iPad 3 [2S ?] will be out a few months later and if the iPad is for themselves, they would possibly hold off for the new version. I would.
You have to wonder how they predict these numbers. Maybe they are sitting down one day, twiddling their fingers and then say “Maybe we should come out with a report on how many iPad 2 were sold. But we have no actually figures. I know. We’ll guess. Add a few extra thousands and make Apple happy. Maybe they’ll even send us a few.”
These predictions remind me of asking two organizers at a demonstration how many demonstrators showed up. One says 75,000. The other says 125,000. The police [who are hopefully unbiased and generally have more experience in determining a crowd size] would say 25,000.

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About ebraiter
computer guy

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