Do you believe the market researchers?

Back in March of 2010, an IDC market research report claimed that even though the iPad was just released a couple of months back, the netbook was still expected to have a 33.6% increase in sales compared to a year earlier when netbook sales took off (with no iPad in sight).
At the time, even an Intel spokeswoman said “we’re looking at hundreds of millions of netbooks that will be sold over time”. Uh huh.
Fast forward to this year and netbook sales have slid. In 2010, just after the IDC report, US retail netbook unit growth decelerated to about 5 percent YoY in April from 25 percent in March and 53 percent in February. That ain’t good. While they were still selling, the growth had dipped.
I am not sure what the IDC researcher(s) were smoking, but clearly, there is no way sales were to continue the way they were going.
Additionally ABI Research believes that 60 million netbooks will be sold by 2013. It’s 2 years away and last I heard, an estimated30 million have been sold. I guess when ABI did their “research” in 2009, this was before the iPad – even though the iPad was already in the works.
This brings me to my point: Do we actually believe what these researchers spew out? Netbooks are not the only case where their research wasn’t even close. IDC reported that by 2015, the Windows Phone OS will be the market leader, beating out the iPhone’s iOS and Android’s OS. Well, they are basing everything on the recent deal where Nokia is switch to Windows Phone to power their phones.


About ebraiter
computer guy

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